Thursday, March 6, 2008

NFL Review 2007 - the Velvet Bear

Remarkable how fast the last 5 months went, isn't it? At the start of September everyone was fresh faced and excited at the start of a new NFL season. Now it has all been and gone, with only the prospect of the 2008 draft, pre-season rumours and inevitable fall-outs to keep us going for the next 7 months.

Back in September I looked at each individual team and predicted how they would do in 2007. How did I do? More importantly, how did they do?

ARIZONA CARDINALS (2007 Record 8 wins-8 losses)

Prediction: They'll be hoping that the new coaching team of Ken Whisenhunt and Russ Grimm can work that out in a way that enables them to get the best from their stars.

A pretty nodescript season really, with two wins in their last two games taking them to an 8-8 record in a season where they didn't play anyone of any note. That they finished second in their division is testament only to just how feeble the NFC West is.


It's hard to get a worse start to the season than the Falcons have already had, with the Michael Vick affair ... If they win as many as six games this season I'll be surprised.

Unbelievably, it got worse, with coach Bobby Petrino quitting before the season was over, injuries, no settled quarterback. Hopefully 2008 will be better for them, although they have already released their most potent attacking threat, Alge Crumpler.


The Ravens surprised many people last season and probably hoped that they would make it all the way to the Superbowl. This year they will do well to do half as well. They're an ageing team where most of their best players are, at most, two seasons from retirement.

The Ravens came crashing down to earth, turning a 13-3 2006 into a 5-11 2007. Along the way they had the embarrassment of being the only team to lose to the woeful Dolphins. With a new head coach in John Harbaugh, they'll be looking for plenty of trade activity in the offseason and will at least qualify for some high draft picks, too. Nothing less than a complete overhaul will do.


Losing McGahee will mean that they look ever more to the passing game. QB JP Losman is no longer the innocent youngster of previous seasons and, on his day, has a phenomenal arm.

Defeat to the Eagles in the last game of the regular season meant that, like in 2006, they finished with a losing season and missed the playoffs. Having to play the Patriots twice didn't help, but then neither did a big fallout between coach Dick Jauron and Losman.


2006 was a huge disappointment. Injuries to Steve Smith illustrated just how badly one-dimensional they had become, even for a side with DeShaun Foster and DeAngelo Williams in the backfield.

Pretty much of the same. Smith spent a chunk of the season injured and nothing much else happened. They also went through no fewer than four quarterbacks. If their season is remembered for anything at all, it will be for being the side who finally persuaded Vinny Testaverde to quit playing.


Even as a Bears fan I still have to ask how the hell they managed to win so many games with a liability like Rex Grossman at QB. Anyone who saw his nightmare Superbowl ought to know that this was no shock to Bears supporters… the Bears will rely upon the erratic Cedric Benson for their points – unless a miracle happens and Grossman manages to find receivers Bernard Berrian and Muhsin Mohammed on a regular basis. The defense, lead by star linebacker Brian Uhrlacher, remains a ferocious prospect for opponents.

It was worse than most fans expected. Grossman was benched early in the season, replacements Brian Griese and Kyle Orton were not much better and Grossman was back behind center by the end of the season. That said, there is a tradition of the side which loses the Superbowl slumping the following season and this was no worse than some recent sides have done. The search for a QB will go on over the offseason and Mohammed has been released, but their real worries may be on defense, where Urlacher needs neck surgery and Lance Briggs, the team’s leading linebacker last season, is available as a free agent.


Expect much, much more from the Bengals this year. With Carson Palmer on form and Chad Johnson… stopping them scoring will take a better team than most of those they will face. They'll concede plenty of points … but you'd always expect them to be a score ahead anyway.

However much you expected, they didn’t produce it. No notable wins, not many points, a huge fallout with Johnson (who wants away but isn’t being allowed to go). How long a QB as good as Carson Palmer will stick this is debatable. Another season of going backwards will probably see him off to pastures new.


Last year was a disaster. This year won't be much better, unless rookie QB Brady Quinn comes good … they'll all need to put more effort in if the Browns are to have much of a season.

What can I say? The Browns surprised everyone this year – and it wasn’t because of the much-vaunted Quinn, either. After trading starting QB Charlie Frye following the first game of the season, replacement Derek Anderson took them a winning season, almost to the playoffs and on the way threw a franchise record number of touchdowns in a season. He and three team mates also made it to the Pro Bowl. The Browns have paid a lot to keep hold of him for next season, so much will be expected of him.


With TO for once living up to his self-generated reputation and Jason Witten a potent threat at TE, they shouldn't miss the injured Terry Glenn at all.

2007 was pretty much like 2006 for the Cowboys. Play great football, beat most people out of sight in the regular season, lose dismally in the playoffs. Only this time with added Jessica Simpson. Many thought the Cowboys would romp to the Superbowl, but a combination of the Giants and an injured Tony Romo did for them and the season’s frustration was probably summed up when Romo began screaming in anger at center Andre Gorode at the end of that game. They will be determined to learn from their mistakes next season and should be even better than they were this. The Romo-Owens double act has attracted a lot of attention, but watch the Romo-Witten one closely, too – the tight end had a record season for receptions this year and could be even more important next.


The astute off-season signings of Daniel Graham and Brandon Stokeley should open up more options for Jay Cutler this season, whilst Travis Henry gives them running options. It is probably too much change for a young QB like Cutler to absorb in the early season, but expect them to come strong in the second half. Having Champ Bailey and Dre' Bly on defense will make them very hard to score against, so once they can get some points on the board they will be a formidable outfit.

It all went a bit wrong for the Broncos and there’s no obvious reason why. After a winning first half of the season they started losing matches and simply couldn’t stop losing and only a narrow victory over the Vikings in the final game gave their season any degree of respectability. When one of your highest paid players retires and admits he wasn’t playing well enough to stay, as Matt Lepsis has done, that’s when you’ve had a bad season.


You have to feel sorry for Lions QB Jon Kitna. He's a talented player who deserves much more than he has to work with here… sixteen weeks of humbling.

Well, they didn’t get humbled for sixteen weeks. In fact, they started quite well, but then fell away badly towards the end. They actually managed not to finish bottom of their division and will regard the season as being something of a success. Kitna basically carried the offense, though, despite at one point suffering a concussion and wibbling on about angels, so they will need do recruit heavily in the offseason if they are to build on this performance.


So, Old Man Favre returns for yet another season in Wisconsin. He's interesting to watch, because his play has become increasingly maverick as the years have worn on – which must make him infuriating to coach and to play with. Just how much scope he will have for that this year, when his only real weapon is WR Donald Driver, is open to debate. He's either going to make someone a star, or it is all going to go horribly wrong for the Packers. Their defense is at least consistent, in that they make as many cock-ups as they do brilliant plays. Expect a losing season.

I thought I was sticking my neck out with that last comment and I was right. The Packers were one of the teams of the season and everyone’s second choice to be the NFC’s Superbowl contenders. In the end, they lost a thrilling conference championship game to the Giants in freezing conditions and bowed out. Favre played as if he was still fifteen years younger and the word is that he probably will be back for his eighteenth straight season come August.


All change in Houston, where the talented – if untried – Matt Schaub has replaced David Carr at QB … it could be a tough learning curve – to the point where it is a toss up who will be wishing he had stayed in Atlanta, him or the Falcons. Things might be a little easier if the defense was reliable, but it isn't, it's inexperienced and has a real vulnerability at CB.

Actually, not only was 8-8 an improvement on the previous season, it was a real achievement for a side who had to play the Colts, Jaguars and Titans twice, all of whom reached the playoffs. The Texans were a solid, unspectacular side in 2007 and with a little more flair and offensive penetration they could be contenders for at least a playoff spot this year.


What would you like me to say? They have Peyton, Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, Joseph Addai and Dallas Clark. The defense is a mess, with a mass of off-season defections being led by star linebacker Cato June, but the only way that will matter will be if Peyton gets injured; the real weakness of the Colts lies in the fact that it is so much his team now, without him it is doubtful they'd cope.

When people look back on 2007, most will forget that the Colts actually ended the regular season with a better win-loss ration than when they won the Superbowl the year before. Instead, they’ll be remembered for their spectacularly lacklustre performance against the Chargers in the divisional playoff game that ended their season. That they did this for the most part without Harrison, who was injured for three months of the season, bodes well for 2008, especially now that they have signed Clark to a new long-term deal.


A slightly disappointing 2006 for the Jags, largely as a result of their failure to hold onto the ball. If they could just stop dropping the thing, they would be a pretty formidable proposition. This season, expect much more work for running backs Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew, who were the best RB pairing last season. The defense has the enormous tackle combination of John Henderson and Marcus Stroud, plus star CB Rashean Mathis, so they will be very hard to score against. Expect a better season than last.

And a better season they certainly had. The Taylor/Jones-Drew combination proved to be a formidable one, the combination of youthful arrogance and sage experience benefitting both players (Taylor made his first ever Pro Bowl). Their performance against the Patriots in the playoffs, whilst ultimately futile, showed that they were the first side to find the key to stopping that particular offense and thereby led, albeit indirectly, to the Giants’ win.


A two man team if ever there was one. Larry Johnson and Tony Gonzalez must be wondering what they did wrong in a previous life to end up playing behind a line as clueless as this one. The defense has been strengthened by the arrival of Napoleon Harris and Alfonso Boone, but really it was youth, not weight, the Chiefs needed here. Expect plenty of 4th quarter scores against this ageing unit.

Bearing in mind how bad the Dolphins’ season was (see below) it takes something to be known as the most disappointing team of the year, but the Chiefs shomehow managed it. They struggled against everyone and only avoided bottom spot in the AFC West because the Raiders were even more inept. Even so, this is a team which didn’t win a game after October 21st and that just isn’t good enough for a franchise which made the playoffs the season before.


It all went very wrong for the Dolphins in 2006. They started as playoff favourites and ended as also-rans. Having released Daunte Culpepper, it is hard to see how they will be any better off with the injury prone Trent Green. The offense lacks any real weapons... Another tough year in prospect.

I don’t think anyone could’ve imagined just how tough. Green got concussed early in the season and never recovered. This left them with Cleo Lemon and the rookie John Beck, neither of whom looked the part. On defense, Jason Taylor was his usual immaculate self and became the poster boy for the first ever regular season game in London, but his long time cohort Zach Thomas was injured in a car crash in October and missed the rest of the year. With a new coach in place and Bill Parcells pulling the strings elsewhere 2008 could only get better, yet it has started with Thomas joining the Cowboys. Not auspicious.


The good news for Vikings fans is that the close season saw them shift Brad Johnson, the world's least mobile QB and a whole host of other makeweights. The bad news is that they've not actually been replaced by anyone. Second year QB Tavaris Jackson will lead them this year and will spend most of it handing the ball to Chester Taylor and rookie Adrian Peterson (not to be confused with the Bears' rookie of the same name), because the Vikings' passing game is going to be non-existent. Being more positive, the defense isn't bad, with a solid reputation against both the pass and the run.

Peterson was a revelation, setting an NFL record for running yards in a single game and picking up the MVP award at the Pro-Bowl. Jackson surprised many people, myself included, by winning a few games and only a loss in their last match kept them from the playoffs. They will hope to do even better in 2008.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (16-0, lost Superbowl )

Tom Brady will be licking his lips in anticipation. An offense which not only features Randy Moss and Donte Stallworth, but which is so strong, they could afford to let Reche Caldwell go last week. Not only that, but the defense, bolstered by Adalius Thomas, lacks any obvious weakness either. Only overconfidence can stop them now.

And it did. It is hard not to think that, having blasted just about everyone aside in the previous 18 weeks, the Patriots thought they could just roll up in Phoenix and wander off with the Vince Lombardi trophy without breaking sweat. They were badly outthought by the Giants’ coaching staff and outplayed by the Giants. With an aging defense they will be busier than most people expect during the close season. Rumour has it they are looking to trade their seventh pick in the Draft for several lower picks in order to bolster that defense.


With Drew Brees, Reggie Bush, Deuce McAllister and last year's surprise new arrival Marques Colston, it is arguable that the Saints should've won more games, scored more points and generally beaten the hell out of most other teams. What let them down was a defense which lacked both speed and penetration; nothing they have done in the close season has changed this, so expect a very similar season to the last.

Actually, it was much worse than last. McAllister was injured very early on, Colston lacked the impact of his rookie season and Bush once again played like a man who totally believed his own hype. You have to feel sorry for the good people of New Orleans, who not only had to get through this season with only 7 home games but have lost one of next year’s to London, too. Then again, if you have to miss seeing a team, missing out on this one isn’t all bad.

NEW YORK GIANTS (10-6, won Superbowl)

The Giants have one huge problem, which is that Eli simply isn't Peyton. In fact, if he wasn't a Manning, it is arguable that the Giants would not have persevered with him anything like as long as they have. The Giants' solution to his regular brain freezes was always to give the ball to Tiki Barber, but Tiki isn't there any more and Brandon Jacobs and Reuben Droughns are just not as reliable at digging a side out of a hole. All this is before you consider that any side which has Plaxico Burress as their #1 receiver has problems anyway. They'll be looking to their tough defense, buoyed by new co-ordinator Steve Spagnuolo, to keep them in games.

I’ve left in my entire preview, because I stand by every word of it. The fact that Eli Manning suddenly hit a world-beating streak of form at around Week 16 doesn’t make him as good as his brother. The interesting thing was that where other QBs fell to pieces in the post-season, he got stronger and stronger. Coupled with Spagnuolo’s genius, the surprise package that was Ahmad Bradshaw and, of course, some outrageous luck, the Giants outperformed absolutely everyone’s expectations this season. Now, of course, they have a lot to look up to.


In signing Thomas Jones from the Bears the Jets have at last given Chad Pennington a decent weapon to work with. The o-line is sound, but they lack class otherwise, with Jerricho Cotchery having had a particularly shoddy season last time around. The defense has historically been good against the pass but feeble against the run and this will hurt them again this year if some serious improvements are not made.

While the Giants were astounding everyone, the Jets were worrying no-one. Another dire season, with no outstanding moments to look back upon. Two of their wins came against the Dolphins, just about everyone else regarded them as easy fodder. The side as a whole simply isn’t good enough and they must make wholesale changes during the close season if they are not to be embarrassed again in 2008.


It is hard to see how it is going to get any better for the Raiders in 2007... As for the defense, well, the only stars are in the corners and that is never a good thing, because you're just asking to get run into oblivion.

It did get marginally better, in that they won two more games. JaMarcus Russell took over as starting quarterback in December and showed some promise and a very strong arm, but unfortunately also showed a tendency to chuck the ball straight at his opponents. Another team who need a wholesale clearout and to start again.


Donovan McNabb can't shore them up forever, but then again I say that every season and every season he does so. Brian Westbrook remains the main alternate threat, especially if McNabb's dodgy knee flares up again. They look weak wide out, though. The defense will blitz and blitz and blitz on the back of good line discipline and a talented secondary. At times it will go wrong, but no-one is going to rack up a cricket score against them.

Westbrook was a star, McNabb a crock. Their problem was that they kept on losing close games. Only the Cowboys and the Giants managed to beat them by more than one score. There’s a lot to hope for next season, especially if they can find themselves a healthier man to put behind center.


An 8-8 season was such a disappointment to them last year, as they tried to adjust to life post-Bus. This year, they have to adjust to life post-Cowher. Can they do it? Well, a year out of the spotlight can only have helped Ben Roethlisberger and Willie Parker remains a threat on the ground. Hines Ward will be #1 receiver and the better for it, especially with Santonio Holmes to keep him company. The defense will continue to do the basics very well indeed, secure in the knowledge that if you get past the line, you've still got to get past the human cannonball that is Troy Polamalu. Definitely should have a better year this year.

2007 was definitely a better year, even though Parker and Holmes spent much of it injured. They won their division by a short head from the resurgent Browns and even managed to scrape a 3-0 win over the Dolphins in a torrential downpour. Their capitulation in the playoffs was a disappointment, though. Whilst all might look good for 2008, they have a horrendous start to the season – 8 of their first 10 games are against sides who made the playoffs in 2007 and they have two games against the Patriots, who beat them very easily in December


The big question here whether the creaky o-line can give Marc Bulger enough time to unleash Steven Jackson, Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce. If they can, the Rams will be a side to be reckoned with. If, like last season, they can't, Bulger faces another season seeing more turf than gaps.

And if Jackson gets injured they will be utterly pants and the Rams will sink like stones in sheep dip. They didn’t manage a win until Week 10. Jackson was the leading rusher in all three of their wins and basically, they were so much a one man team that they posed no threat to anyone.


It isn't hard to see what will happen here. From the snap, Philip Rivers will hand the ball off to LT, LT will blast another hole in a hapless defensive line, and the Chargers will keep doing it until they score... In defense, they've got Shawn Merriman, Quentin Jammer and a whole host of others as adept at stopping the run as their offensive counterparts are at making it. Hard to beat.

Maybe not as hard to beat as they had been the year before, the Chargers surprised everyone by not only reaching the playoffs but actually making it to the AFC championship game. Unfortunately, by then Rivers, Tomlinson and Gates were all so beaten up, the team were hardly in the game against the Patriots. Notwithstanding that, the Chargers will regard this as having been a fantastic year and, if they can keep all of their stars fit, will hope to go two games better in 2008. And kicker Nate Kaeding played for five weeks with a broken leg. That’s dedication!


Still an improving side, the 49ers. Bringing in Darrell Jackson and Ashley Lelie gives Alex Smith some much needed options downfield, …49ers fans everywhere – have much to hope for this year.

Oh dear. It is hard to find something positive to say about all this. They were not the worst team in the NFL – they just tended to play like it. Smith played much of the season with a damaged shoulder and against his wishes, causing a certain amount of unhappiness between him and head coach Mike Nolan. At least they could boast the defensive rookie of the year, linebacker Patrick Willis. That very fact, though, demonstrates just how under the cosh their defense was for most of the season.


Last season was spoilt for them by the injury which deprived them of Matt Hasselbeck for a good part of it. This year, they have lost Darrell Jackson and Jerramy Stevens, so an awful lot depends upon Shaun Alexander recovering his 2005 form. The defense is built on speed, not power, so expect them to take a pounding there, too. A shadow of their former selves.

A fractional improvement on the season before. The offensive line struggled, which meant that Alexander struggled, whilst injuries meant that, at times, they were having to play backup QB Seneca Wallace as a wide receiver. Coach Mike Holmgren caused anxiety towards the end of the season by dithering over whether to return for another year, eventually deciding to do so but announcing that it would be his last.


Anyone expecting the Bucs to bring in some youth to replace their aging side will have been very disappointed. Instead, Jeff Garcia will be the second oldest starting QB in the NFL. Moreover, he's their only threat on the ground apart from Cadillac Williams. The defense is in better shape, with Gaines Adams a quality signing, but nothing less than a complete overhaul could've prevented this being a very tough season for the Bucs.

Not as tough as they might have expected, it seems. Getting to the playoffs really was their Superbowl, especially as, like the Patriots, they were outplayed by the Giants when they got there. Garcia had another solid season and Adams was a star throughout. How much better they might have done had Williams been fit for all but the early part of the season is anyone’s guess, but they never stopped trying and did a great job of turning around their disastrous 2006 season


If he could play QB, RB and WR all at the same time, then Vince Young would. Moreover, if he could, the Titans would let him, because the options are LenDale White, Chris Henry and David Givens, which doesn't add up to an awful lot in my playbook. They've no Pacman Jones on defense, either, but they do have the hugely underrated Nick Harper, for which they may come to be incredibly thankful indeed.

The Titans somehow managed to cough and splutter their way into the close season. You got the sense that they never really quite got moving, yet they kept grinding out wins when it mattered and White was more productive than anyone expected him to be. A surprise win over a weakened Indianapolis in Week 16 sent them into the playoffs, but no-one was very surprised when they were well beaten by the Chargers the following weekend.


Don't expect too much passing from the Redskins. Mark Brunell had real trouble finding his receivers last season and things aren't going to change much this year. But given that they will have to go to a running game, losing Derrick Dockery seems at best careless, at worst tantamount to allowing Clinton Portis to be assaulted several times a week. Luckily, they now have Ladell Betts as a quality backup. They'll need to put plenty of points on the board, though, because their defensive line is old, injury-prone and likely to ship points like an old bucket ships water.

The tragedy of Sean Taylor’s fatal shooting overshadowed everything and this was a season for triumphing over adversity for the Redskins. Not only did they lose their defensive leader, Taylor, but starting QB Jason Campbell (Brunell was replaced at the start of the season) and head coach Joe Gibbs announced that he would stand down at the end of the season. Even getting to the playoffs was an achievement and the fact that they did so with all of this behind them and under the leadership of Todd Collins, a quarterback who hadn’t thrown a pass in anger for eight years, the stuff of fairytales. It all came to a thudding halt at Seattle in the first week of the playoffs, but this was definitely the feelgood story of the season.


offside said...

Dear Bear,

there is no fucking way I'm reading through all this.

I did like your article on the six nations, though.

andrewm said...

offie, then let me summarise the fucking important bit:

The Vikings have a shot at the playoffs next season.

That's fucking good news, no?

guitougoal said...

the fucking news is Brett fucking Fabre is leaving the building,
I don't know if Andrewm can cope with it.

andrewm said...

Good fucking riddance.

Guitou, I got my t-shirt and I'm delighted with it. I wore it to the shops yesterday and I believe there were quite a few admiring glances.

Ebren said...

AM - more admiring glances than usual? If so how many?

VB - I am deeply impressed with your work on NFL. Excellent job, personality, intelligence, accuracy and diligence. Superb coverage.

Thank you for taking the time to share your thoughts.

guitougoal said...

I hope to get a picture!
Agree with Ebren, surprisingly :) premco is a brilliant observer
btw (is he getting a t-shirt? I may send offside's xl, still on my kitchen table if needed ...after all this guy is attired in bikini and sombrero only.

andrewm said...

Ebren, I usually get about three glances for every ten people, but this time it was more like five and a half. I could see them thinking, "That guy looks damn good - and when I get home I'm going to check out that website."

Guitou, offie has more photos of me than one man really needs. I send him a new one almost every day. I'm sure he'll send a few your way if you ask.

offside said...

If Tee-shirts are awarded on writing merits, then the Bear deserves his more than I do, no questions.

I've had a quick glance now and I do like the idea of going back on your own pre-season predictions. Very brave and honest. For one thing, I'd like to see one media mogul give us a piece of writing about his pre-season assertion that "man for man, Newcastle have as good a squad as Arsenal". That would be fun.

Not sure I'd have time to read it at the moment though, I'm too busy sorting by collection of photos of Andrewm. By order of kinkiness.

offside said...

"my" collection

It's typo day, today.

Ebren said...

Offy, anyone who doesn't change their opinions when provided with new evidence is either lucky the first time or as obstinate as a French unionist.

I also predicted 4th for Newcastle not 1st.

Oh well, the young-uns turned out to be better/more resilient than I thought. Newcastle's problems more entrenched.

I still think they both have good players.

velvet bear said...

Thanks for all of the comments. I appreciate that it is a bit long, but it's not my fault there are 32 teams in the NFL.

The Vikings have just signed some wide receivers, so who knows what next year will hold...

offside said...

No, I meant a real piece, like. You know, a full article that we can all comment on.


offside said...

And the above was meant for the Honourable Chief Lord Ebren His Giddy Highness.

velvet bear said...

But player for player Newcastle do have as good a squad as Arsenal...


offside said...

Actually, I agree. They have a better goalkeeper, for a start. No, two better goalkeepers. And then, er...

guitougoal said...

"newcastle better than arsenal...ladies" sexist comments velvet-But I would like to watch a mixed game, with the girls kicking the guys all over.

Velvet Bear said...

You won't find a bigger supporter of women's sports than me. I used to coach a women's rugby team - you've not lived until you have seen someone tackled by the pony tail

munni said...

guitou/bear, we don't kick the guys, we kick the ball, thank you very much, and on current form I think Arsenal Ladies might beat Newcastle very comfortably.

I once played a "mixed" game in which I was one of only two women on the pitch. At first the two of us were treated with extreme care and everyone went out of their way to feed us easy passes, but after 15 or 20 minutes they forgot and the gloves came off. When the balance is right though, playing on mixed teams is a lot more fun than all-women, in my opinion.

guitougoal said...

munni, the ball it's the right think to do-
Tackles by the pony tail....ouach!

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